diffopinion

End of 300 wins?

I have heard talk of whether or not Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux will be the last 300 winners of all time. I disagree.

I’ve often heard that it won’t happen because of pitchers starting fewer games than they used to. It is true that pitchers started 40-50 games regularly in the 1800’s and dead ball era of the early twentieth century. But once the dead ball era ended, it wasn’t really until the season was lengthened from 154 games to 162 that 40 starts became a common event. Simple math shows the following.

Assuming three days rest and no days off,

154 / 4 ~= 38 games started
162 / 4 ~= 41 games started

Currently, 35 – 36 starts per season are still reached by a couple pitchers each year. Believe it or not, Warren Spahn (who I consider the best pitcher of all time) never started 40 games in a season.

I would say the biggest difference between the old days and today is not the number of starts, but the fact that there were more complete games, which gives the start more of an opportunity for a decision and that starters used to relieve between starts which gave them an opportunity to pick up an easy win.

Note the list below shows 300 game winners for different era’s. Note that there were more pitchers with 300+ wins during the start of 162 game schedule than there were during the deadball era!

Note that if Glavine makes it to 300 wins, the present era (the last 20 years) will have matched the total of those pitchers who pitched mainly between the deadball era and the 162 game schedule.

From the 1870’s to the present, there have only been 22 pitchers who have had the talent and the durability to make it to 300 wins. And when you’re seeing pitchers nearly 40 years old winning 24 games (Randy Johnson – 2002), there is no doubt that the list of 22 will expand.

http://www.baseball-reference.com

1800’s
Cy Young
Pud Galvin
Kid Nichols
Tim Keefe
John Clarkson
Charley Radbourn
Mickey Welch

1901 – 1920 (Deadball era)
Walter Johnson
Pete Alexander
Christy Mathewson
Eddie Plank

1920 - 1960
Warren Spahn
Lefty Grove
Early Wynn

1960 - 1985
Steve Carlton
Nolan Ryan
Don Sutton
Phil Niekro
Gaylord Perry
Tom Seaver

1985 - Present
Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux

posted by DRL @ 12:09 PM